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  • Edition 41 - 18 November 2019

补贴削减使得光伏白银需求黯淡

今年中国的光伏装机量将下降50%。第三季度,光伏组件的装机容量降至4.6GW,中国今年的累计装机容量仅为16GW,比去年减少了近50%。补贴指导方针迟迟未公布被认为是上半年表现疲弱的原因,但7月份公布后预期的反弹并未出现。新政策的细节包括对12月31日前连接的装置提供上网电价补贴,但无助于需求,今年第三季度仍成为全球最大光伏市场最疲弱的季度。

中国装机量的下降将对今年的白银需求产生负面影响。中国光伏产业去年白银需求约为3380万盎司,装机容量为44.1GW,占当年全球装机容量的42%(来源:世界白银协会)。第三季度成绩出炉后,AECEA(亚欧清洁能源(太阳能)咨询公司)对中国2019年的装机指引数字进行了第四次下调,从年初估计的35-40GW下调至20-24GW。

中国减少20GW的装机容量将减少约1500万盎司的白银需求。再加上节约银用量,仅节银一项,每年就能减少3%的载荷(大约200万盎司)。不过,由于中国制造商继续生产超出国内需求的电池和组件,其他国家光伏装机的增长推动了出口。中国的供过于求有助于限制价格,再加上政府的支持,全球其他地区的需求正在增加。

尽管如此,鉴于中国在市场上的主导地位,其他国家的增长不可能抵消今年减少的20GW;世界其他地区的装机量必须增加40%,才能弥补中国的损失,使之与2018年的装机容量持平。今年早些时候全球装机容量估计为125GW,目前看来值得怀疑。算上持续的节银给全球光伏用银需求施加进一步的压力,全球光伏用银需求可能低于去年的8050万盎司。

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