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贵金属锭

第10期 | 2024年03月12日

当黄金价格创下新高时,这是避风港与投机之间的较量

防御性资产(黄金)和投机性资产(股票/加密货币)均创下历史新高,这暗示金价上涨并非仅仅是“避险”情绪上升的结果。上周,以美元和欧元计价的黄金价格都达到了历史新高,乍一看似乎是金融市场更广泛“逢低买入”阶段的一部分。然而,美国利率下调预期推迟,这并不支持金价进一步上涨。这引发了一个问题,即确定金价大幅上涨背后的驱动因素,但显然黄金已经能够找到愿意购买的买家。

此次上涨缺乏美元疲软、利率下降和ETF资金流入等典型驱动因素。美国债券收益率在美国2月份核心PCE通胀数据与预期相符、以及低于预期的美国制造业PMI数据公布后,跌至4.6%以下,这可能为金价上涨提供了一定的助力。美国通胀正在消退,削弱了黄金配置作为“通胀对冲”的论点,同时,鉴于美元指数今年以来上涨超过2%,美元也尚未为黄金提供太多看涨支持。

如果这些因素在今年晚些时候同时出现,金价可能会进一步上涨。尽管自2月中旬以来金价一直在上涨,但ETF投资者尚未支持这一上涨趋势。以黄金为支持的ETF已经连续一年多看到黄金持有量稳步减少。然而,金价在当前水平交易的时间越长,跟风投资者开始买入的可能性就越大,这可能是一个重要的积极刺激因素。鸽派的美联储是黄金牛市最明显、也可能是最有影响力的催化剂。上周,杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,今年“可能会”降息,这表明美联储对降息持开放态度,但不愿操之过急。不过,市场预计今年将降息三次或更多,这应该会支持金价。

强劲的实物需求支撑着强劲的金价。预计今年中国和印度的实物黄金需求将保持相对强劲,同时,央行净正面需求似乎将延续至今年,今年1月央行增持了39吨黄金(来源:世界黄金协会)。

目前黄金处于超买区域,如果下周的美国消费者价格指数高于预期,金价可能会出现回调,上涨势头可能会被遏制。尽管存在短期波动,但为2024年下半年金价长期上涨提供支撑的因素应该已经到位。

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