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  • Edition 01 - 13 January 2020

钯铑再上涨,但有上终有下

2009年初以来,钯的价格上涨了996%,较2008年末的最低价格上涨了1000%以上。2009年开始,铑价的涨幅低于钯价,但铑价较2016年的低点上涨了1212%。去年,钯和铑的价格分别上涨了49%和151%。

价格大幅上涨的背景是汽车销量下降。2019年,美国轻型车销量下降略超过1%,至1700万辆。最大的汽车市场中国,12月份销量同比下降3.6%,全年下降7.5%(来源:CAAM),连续第二年出现下滑。中汽协预测,今年汽车销量将下降2%,至2530万辆。

钯和铑的需求受收紧排放法规提振。2019年,中国多个地区实施国6a,某些汽车制造商直接跳到国6b,从而提高了铑的要求。钯和铑还受益于欧美汽油车催化剂负荷增加带来的需求增加。今年,印度将在4月引入了Bharat 6,中国将在7月全国推广国6,美国和欧洲将进一步收紧法规。

由于更严格的排放法规抵消了汽车销量的下降,价格可能会持续上涨一段时间。过去曾出现过较大幅度的价格上涨。对于钯而言,从1992年到2001年1月,价格上涨了1321%。当2008年铑金价格达到顶峰时,它已经从2003年的低点上涨了2195%。问题在于,价格随后暴跌回开始上涨的水平附近。

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