贵金属市场周报

通过我们定期发布的市场报告获取贵金属市场内所有重大趋势的相关资讯。

贵金属锭

市场聚焦

  • Edition 10 - 23 March 2020

Market Watch

欧洲的汽车工业转入惨淡。由于COVID-19的扩散导致供应链中断和销量下降,大多数欧洲汽车制造商已 暂停生产至少两周。欧洲是世界汽车生产的第二大市场(仅次于中国),2018年产量为1920万辆,占全球 乘用车生产总量的四分之一(来源:ACEA)。

预计未来几周美国将出现中断。底特律的三家汽车制造商(福特、通用和菲亚特克莱斯勒)已经同意在 一段不确定的时间内关闭他们在美国的生产设施。不过,中国正在重启生产,大众汽车指出,其33家中国工 厂中,有31家已经投入运营。现在的问题是:中国消费者何时会出手购买新车?

欧美汽车销售停滞。在中国,2月份汽车销量暴跌了80%。随着管控措施限制人员流动和关闭经销商,欧 洲和美国的销售可能会出现类似的情况。由于汽车销售和铂族金属需求的巨大不确定性,过去两周钯和铑的 价格快速下跌。今年年初,预计钯和铑市场将出现巨额赤字。现在,由于欧洲和美国停产,市场可能会出现 暂时盈余。由于终端用户的购买进度明显放缓,铑价已从两周前创纪录的14150美元/盎司跌至5950美元/盎 司,跌幅超过一半。然而,这些金属仍将是满足排放限制所必需的,一旦汽车生产开始复苏,需求将恢复。 在可预见的未来,价格仍将维持波动。

Sibanye Stillwater(SS)将为其Marikana业务提供处理能力,抵消本月早些时候英美铂业(AAP) 宣布的不可抗力。不可抗力是AAP冶炼厂在Waterval转炉厂暂时停工后宣布的。与SS的协议涉及由 SS Rustenburg和Platinum Mile业务生产的所有金属,以及来自Kroondal的50%精矿。这些业务产生的精矿正常 是由AAP加工(勒斯滕堡)或精矿采购(Platinum Mile, Kroondal)合同处理。这些措施仅适用于不可抗力 期间(80天)。SS提供替代处理能力将在短期内减少对铂族金属供应的影响。

黄金表现优异,安全性相对较高。过去两周,政府债券大幅波动。3月9日,随着价格上涨,收益率被压 低至创纪录低点。上周,美国国债价格暴跌,10年期美国国债收益率超过1.1%,创下近三周的最高水平。 黄金也感受到了压力,跌至1485美元/盎司的年内低点,因为黄金的避险属性被流动性需求所取代。美联储 上周第二次紧急降息使利率接近0%,并将实际利率进一步推至负值,但仍未能为黄金提供支撑。不过,ETF 持仓量持平,散户购买实物金条一直很强劲。黄金的表现好于大多数资产类别,今年金价仅下跌了3%(较峰 值下跌了13%)。

一段时间以来,白银的表现一直逊于黄金,而且仍然疲弱。这一点在上周的金银比攀升至125以上时得 到了证实。如此高的比例可能会让投资者产生更多兴趣,确实有报道称,市场对银币的需求强劲,但银币价 格尚未出现正面反应。美国造币厂在库存耗尽后,上周暂时停止了美国鹰银币的销售。今年3月前三周,美 国鹰硬币的销量达到311万盎司,比整个2月份增长了378%。不过,由于白银价格上周下跌14%,至12.5美元/ 盎司(今年下跌30%)的11年低点,受其与工业需求的相关的不利影响,白银价格继续弱于黄金。

The text on this page is not for the use of private individuals and solely aimed at professional market participants in the precious metals markets. It is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sub-scribe for any investment. Heraeus has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Heraeus makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Heraeus only and are subject to change without notice. Heraeus assume no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correct-ness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence f reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, we assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for ost profit which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report. By embedding a link to an external Internet web site ("hyperlinks"), Heraeus does not adopt such an external Internet web site or its content as its own because Heraeus is unable to control the contents of such web sites constantly. Heraeus will also not assume any responsibility for the availability of such external Internet web sites or their contents, and any visit by the user of such external Internet web sites and their contents via hyperlink is at the user's own risk. Heraeus does not assume liability for any direct or indirect damage arising to the user from the use and the existence of information on these Internet web sites, and Heraeus does also not assume any liability that the information called by the user is virus-free. All prices shown are interbank market bid prices, all charts unless stated otherwise are based on Thomson Reuters.

Heraeus Precious Metals - Setting the PGM agenda for the years ahead (only in English)

返回顶部
You have not agreed to all cookies, which limits the use of the website and performance. To be able to use our website to its full extent, please agree to all cookies. You can change your preferences in the cookie settings.