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  • Edition 31 - 9 September 2019

铑的涨势结束了?

趋紧的排放法规正在提高汽车催化剂对铑的需求。铑是处理NOX的关键金属,所有主要汽车市场都在实施降低NOX排放的限制,从而使得汽车催化剂的装载量增加。

尽管需求强劲,但价格上行势头可能会放缓。南非的供应瓶颈也导致市场紧张,但这些应该会在未来几个月内缓解。中国是最大的乘用车市场,今年前七个月销量下降11.4%。同期美国轻型汽车销量下降1.5%。 7月份欧洲汽车销量持平,但2019年上半年仍下降3.1%。尽管如此,由于装载量的增加超过了汽车销量的下降,支撑需求,因此铑价格一直处于高位运行。铑的价格近一周上涨了975美元/盎司,即23%,今年铑的价格翻了一番。历史表明,这样的快速上涨是难以持续的。

针对所有乘用车的更严格的NOX排放标准将于本月在欧洲生效。明年1月新车型的允许排放限制将进一步降低,从2021年1月开始,所有车辆都将适用更低的排放限制。美国也将在未来几年逐步降低允许的NOX 排放水平。2023年中国引进国6b需要更高的铑含量。随着一些城市于今年7月实行国6,在2020年7月全国范围内实施国6之前,一些汽车制造商已提前开始生产符合国6b标准的汽车。随着未来几年所有主要汽车市场的排放标准收紧,铑市场可能再次紧张,价格将进一步上涨。

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