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  • 2022年第15期 - 2022年5月10日

美联储继续收紧货币政策。黄金还有上涨空间吗?

美国和欧洲的通货膨胀率达到了40年来的最高水平。3月初,以欧元计价的黄金价格达到创纪录水平,以美元计价的黄金接近其创纪录水平,但目前以欧元和美元计价的黄金交易价格分别下降了6%和9%,尽管3月份通胀率继续攀升,欧元区和美国的通胀率分别为7.4%和8.5%。

美联储开始在提高利率上动了真格。正如预期的那样,上周美联储将基金利率提高了50个基点。加息75个基点似乎已被排除在议程之外,在接下来的两次会议上可能会加息50个基点。然而,期货市场只是略微降低了它在以后的会议上对加息速度的预测,加息75个基点仍有可能。

美联储紧缩政策是否会导致经济衰退?美国国债收益率曲线在4月发生逆转,10年期国债收益率低于2年期国债收益率。在过去,这一直是衰退的可靠指标,尽管从反转到衰退开始的时间变化很大。在20世纪70年代,通货膨胀和黄金价格在衰退的第一阶段持续上升,创下历史纪录,但一旦通货膨胀开始下降,黄金价格也下跌。

如果通胀率继续攀升,那么黄金可能会进一步上涨。美联储距离下次会议还有六周,上限利率仅为1%,实际利率为负值。问题是,在截至4月的一年中,通胀会有多高?美国的数据将于周三公布。欧洲央行落后于美联储,预计几个月内不会开始加息。当美联储正在加息,而欧洲央行没有加息,欧元一直在走弱,这可能会持续下去,从而支持以欧元计价的金价。

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