第27期 | 2024年07月22日
贵金属市场周报
通过我们定期发布的市场报告获取贵金属市场内所有重大趋势的相关资讯。
“特朗普交易”推动金价上涨
“特朗普交易”推动了金价上涨。周三，金价在达到每盎司2484美元后再创新高。因为特朗普在11月美国大选中获胜的可能性越来越大，投资者纷纷押注黄金上涨。此前，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒附近遭遇枪击，导致其民意支持率瞬间飙升。随着特朗普提出削弱美元、大幅提高关税壁垒和维持低利率的措施，其第二任期的政策重点也开始广为流传并被纳入市场定价考量。10年期国债收益率降至4.23%，美元也略有贬值。与此同时，根据美联储官员最近的鸽派言论，与一个月前61.7%的概率相比，互换市场预计美联储9月议息会议降息25个基点的概率为93.5%。所有这些因素都是利多金价的。交易所交易基金（ETF）市场再度迎来强劲的一周，全球流入量超过100万盎司。这一趋势表明，即使美国股市创历史新高，且在美联储降息之前，机构投资者仍在寻求避风港。股市下跌和降息的实现可能会进一步推高金价。
稳定的电力供应有助于弥补铂金市场赤字。周四，英美铂业（Anglo AmericanPlatinum，简称AAP）报告称，第一季度精炼铂金产量为55.4万盎司，同比增长13%。尽管其自采铂族金属（PGM）产量同比下降2%，但这表明英美铂业已成功减少库存。截至2023年底，该公司拥有超过20万盎司的未精炼铂金库存，因为频繁的电力限制阻止了其对原材料库存进行加工。南非的停电情况今年已显著缓解，两周前，该国庆祝了连续100天未停电的里程碑。进一步释放铂金库存将使更多供应重返市场。英美铂业2024年的铂族金属精矿和精炼产品产量指导目前维持在330万至370万盎司（5E）不变。本周铂价回落，收于每盎司968美元，低于1000美元。
诺里尔斯克镍业公司（Nornickel）完成冶炼炉维修后，将有部分钯金产能恢复来填补市场需求。由于西方对相关设备和技术实施制裁，诺里尔斯克镍业公司旗舰企业纳杰日达冶炼厂的两座冶炼炉之一的维修工作推迟了两年，计划于8月初重新启动。诺里尔斯克镍业公司已找到应对之策，并有望提前完成维修工作。
5月，诺里尔斯克镍业公司透露，由于维修工作，2024年钯金产量预计将从270万盎司降至230万至250万盎司。如果8月全面恢复生产，将有部分精炼钯金重返市场。俄罗斯是全球最大的钯金生产国，约占全球市场份额的40%。上周，钯金在贵金属中再次表现不佳，下跌6.33%，至每盎司915美元。
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