第42期 | 2023年12月05日
贵金属市场周报
通过我们定期发布的市场报告获取贵金属市场内所有重大趋势的相关资讯。

押注利率见顶,有助于推高金价
押注利率见顶,有助于推高金价。交易员现在预计美联储和欧洲央行将在今年上半年更加温和,这对黄金有利,但对经济不利。上周欧洲CPI低于预期,表明欧洲央行在上次会议上暂停加息是正确的,其货币政策正在按计划发挥作用。最新的美联储利率期货暗示,美联储在2024年3月前开始降息的可能性为40%。这表明市场态度发生了转变,不再像10月中旬那样认为“利率将长期处于较高水平”,这促使交易员认为首次降息只会在6月到来。这种市场情绪的转向削弱了美元,并有助于推动最近的金价上涨,尽管中东的地缘政治形势有所降温。
资金正重新流入黄金基金。11月,ETF黄金流出放缓,这或许代表投资者情绪有所改善,尽管这一趋势尚未令人信服地逆转。年初至今,黄金基金净流出770万盎司。尽管流出率上月降至自4月以来的最低水平,但净持有量仍下降了39万盎司,表明仍有待弥补。如果恢复净流入,将表明黄金价格升高=持有量增加这一常态已自当前黄金涨势开始以来已不复存在。如果这些趋势重新调整,金价可能会被推更高。
上周黄金价格收于2067美元/盎司,上涨3.37%,略低于今早亚洲交易时段飙升历史高点之前的最高点。黄金价格最高上涨至2146美元/盎司,比前一个交易日的历史最高点2082美元/盎司高出3%以上。此后,价格回落,但2000美元/盎司至2050美元/盎司现在可能是一个支撑区域。
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