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贵金属锭

第14期 | 2024年04月15日

今年太阳能银需求增长将放缓,但仍会创下新高

近年来白银的需求扩张得益于太阳能装置安装量的显著增长。据估计,去年全球用于光伏(PV)电池的银需求已达到创纪录的1.9亿盎司,较2020年的1亿盎司大幅增加,占工业银需求的约30%。到2024年,太阳能银需求可能会超过2亿盎司。这一增长主要得益于中国和全球光伏制造能力和光伏装机量的迅速扩张。中国占全球光伏行业制造能力的85%,2023年国内新增的太阳能装机容量几乎与全球2022年全年的新增量相当。

电网可能成为新太阳能装置安装的瓶颈。今年,中国新增装机容量预计将从217吉瓦放缓至约190吉瓦(来源:中国光伏行业协会(CPIA))。中国的太阳能制造和需求的发展速度远快于电网的升级速度。中国新安装的太阳能装机中集中式和分布式光伏平分秋色。每一种装机都需要不同的电网连接。在一些地方,可再生能源的传输和存储能力滞后于新安装的发电设备,这可能开始抑制新的太阳能装机。然而中国太阳能电力与电网的融合已经远远领先于欧洲和美国,因此这也可能在其他地方成为问题。

闲置的一些产能可以支撑更多装机,同时维持银需求的增长。中国维持了太阳能电站95%的产能利用率下限。但在发电量超过传输能力的地方,这一利用率无法持,因此可能会阻碍新的太阳能装置的安装。最近的一份报告表明,政府可能会放宽光伏发电并网这一限制,这将允许太阳能装机和白银需求的增长继续,因为即使在较低的利用率下,新增加的设备也可以维持同样的规模和白银需求。总的来说中国今年新装置安装的官方预测趋向于增长放缓。

高技术电池的银耗增长可以弥补白银因光伏装机增速放缓带来的需求损失。太阳能电池的制造类型正在发生重大转变。去年,PERC型电池占太阳能发电总量的75%,但今年这一比例预计会降至55%(来源:中国光伏行业协会)。这是由于TopCon型生产能力的迅速扩张。TopCon电池每瓦通常比PERC电池多含约28%的银。因此,尽管新的光伏装机可能放缓,但预计今年太阳能用银需求不会受到抑制。但由于企业持续努力降低电池银耗,太阳能电池的银需求增长预计会滞后于全球太阳能电池生产和安装量的增长。

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