贵金属市场周报

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市场聚焦

  • Edition 17 - 26 May 2020

高价刺激旧金变现

COVID-19的流行严重影响了亚洲市场的黄金首饰需求。2020年一季度全球珠宝需求降至325.8吨,创 下历史新低,中国是全球最大的珠宝消费市场,需求下降65%。同期,印度的需求下降了41%,预计第二季 度降幅会更大。去年中国和印度的珠宝市场占全球需求的27%,为1182.6吨(来源:世界黄金协会)。

2020年一季度央行仍然净买入,但购买速度放缓。购买量同比下降8%,至145吨。自2015年以来最大的 买家俄罗斯也暂停购买,这将对今年全球央行需求产生重大影响。

高金价可能刺激旧金变现。黄金价格变动影响年度黄金回收量变动的75%左右,经济动荡时期回收量变 动将进一步加速。1997年亚洲经济危机,消费者出售黄金等流动资产以缓解困境,旧金变现飚升,2007-2008年全球金融危机期间,旧金变现更是大增。印度(见第4页图表)、中国、马来西亚、新加坡和韩国的本币金价创下历史新高。

今年印度的旧金回收可能达到历史最高水平。回收金是市场重要组成部分,每年约占全球供应量三分之 一(2019年为27%)。考虑到今年预测消费需求大幅下滑和央行购买力度减弱,回收量增加可能淹没市场。

2020年一季度全球回收量下降了4%,至280.2吨,回收商和消费者都受到封锁的影响(来源:世界黄金协 会)。现在封锁逐步取消,金价依然高位运行,抢售潮再现?

今年以来,意在提振全球经济的空前规模的货币和财政刺激措施将投资者推向黄金市场,支撑了金价。 现在,随着回收金属供应过剩、珠宝需求急剧下降和央行需求疲软,黄金巅峰似乎即将结束。

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