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市场聚焦

  • 2022年第31期 - 2022年9月27日

甩负荷: 南非PGM供应紧张的六个阶段

2022年钯金供应预期下调。英美铂金公司Polokwane冶炼厂重建的延迟预计将导致多达21万盎司钯金和215万盎司铂金作为在制品库存转入新的一年,从而降低今年的精炼金属产量。该冶炼厂的原料主要是Mogalakwena生产的富钯矿石,也来自Bushveld东部边缘的矿山。在Mogalakwena,平均金属含量加权为钯(46%),因此对钯市场的影响相对较大。

南非唯一的电力公司Eskom今年第二次宣布第六阶段甩负荷。由于计划中的维护停机和众多电站的故障,上周日至周一的电网需求需要削减6000兆瓦。在第六阶段,要求矿山将电力需求削减高达50%。第五阶段从周二至周六实施,原因是一些发电机组恢复在线,而其他发电机组保持离线。

更高水平的甩负荷过去影响了PGM产量,今年可能会再次影响。2019年,第六阶段首次实施,约9万盎司在建PGM受到第六阶段冶炼设施闲置的影响。随着减负荷水平的提高,精炼PGM生产的下行风险增加。英美铂金公司(Anglo American Platinum)报告称,由于甩负荷仅达到第4阶段的严重程度,22年上半年的精炼生产受到了3万盎司(2E)的轻微影响。Impala Platinum还暗示,为了应对最近的缩减,它采取了大幅减少熔炉使用的措施。更高水平的电力供应减少可能会对22年下半年产生更大的影响。

对PGM供应的影响集中在加工设施。在更高的甩负荷期间,矿场的能源密集型浓缩和熔炼过程可能会缩短。PGM矿山的地下作业通常仍在运行,但如果暂停地下水抽水和矿石运输以减少能源消耗,一些矿山的较深部分可能需要减少产量。如果电力供应问题阻碍了金属冶炼和精炼或其他操作,则可能会进一步影响PGM产量。

结果可能是钯金的市场赤字和价格上涨压力。尽管汽车产量多次下调,但预计2022年钯金市场仍将出现赤字。Stillwater矿的洪水、Polokwane冶炼厂的重建以及现在更为严重的电力问题导致全球钯金供应减少,而非需求减少。这可能导致短期内价格上涨压力加大,并使钯金价格最近保持在2000美元/ 盎司以上。然而,明年,来自22年下半年的未加工库存将被精炼并添加到新的生产中,这可能会降低价格。

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