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  • Edition 40 - 17. November 2020

刺激更多的铂族金属供应需要的不仅仅是创纪录的铑价格

今年铂族金属的高价格提升了生产商的利润。受纪录高位的铑和钯价格以及兰特兑美元走弱的推动, 2020年南非铂族金属生产商的收入大幅增长。虽然由于产量下降,今年上半年的单位成本大幅上升,但所有 铂族金属生产商都取得了丰厚的利润。许多业务现在已恢复到或接近100%的产能,而且随着南半球进入夏 季,南非将Covid-19警报级别降至1级,2020年全年的单位成本很可能低于2020年上半年。

高位的金属价格、强劲的现金流应会鼓励生产商增加产量。随着现有的业务生产得到优化,产量正出现 一定程度的增长。不过,虽然南非有几个关闭的矿井和推迟的项目有可能重新启动,但重启这些项目也存在 障碍。如果关闭这些矿山的原因除了金属价格低之外还有矿体变得贫瘠,那么目前高昂的钯和铑价格可能不 足以促使重启这些矿山。铑的价格具有波动性,生产商不太愿意因为铑的价格保持在历史高位来证明重启一 个可能投产10年或更长时间的矿山投资是合理的。尤其铑价上涨是由英美铂业(AAP)精炼产量不足带动。 铂金将在任何重启的矿山中贡献最多产量,而在已经严重供过于求的市场上,铂金产量的增加可能进一步压 低价格,损害整体回报。

相比新增铂族金属产量的项目,现有的项目更容易受到价格高位的激励,而随着时间的推移,供应可能 逐渐出现增长。由于北半球的矿体中钯所占比例较高,北半球的钯金供应可能对高价更为敏感。轻型汽油车 销售将恢复,排放法规也在收紧,因此预计铑和钯的赤字将扩大,支撑价格保持高位。

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