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  • Edition 15 - 6 May 2020

不确定性见顶,金价见顶?

COVID-19大流行病已经使世界各地的经济活动停止。美国是全球经济的关键驱动力,目前占全球与COVID-19相关的感染和死亡人数的三分之一,超过100万人感染,6万人死亡。美国申请失业救济人数已经超过3000万,使失业率达到15%或更高。

金价仍维持高位。各国政府和央行史无前例的财政和货币扩张提振了黄金的投资需求,因为流动性充斥着金融市场,降低了黄金投资者的机会成本。3月份,10年期国债收益率被推至历史新低(0.54%),对黄金有利,但新债券的发行可能被视为供过于求。如果债券收益率上升吸引买盘,那么可能出现从黄金到债券的转移。然而,接近于零的利率继续利于黄金的上涨,目前实际利率保持在负区间。

由于中国和印度消费不足,黄金需求严重不利,但健康的投资需要正在支撑需求。今年迄今ETF流入量已经超过了2019年全年的流入量(截至目前为1250万盎司,而2019年为1150万盎司)。不过,2012年金价见顶很久之后,ETF持仓量仍继续上升。

黄金涨势出现停滞迹象。RSI等技术指标正显示出与价格的背离,投机性黄金期货净多头仓位在2月份创下历史新高,但此后有所下降。上一次投机性净多头头寸创历史新高时,金价在随后5个月内下跌了18%。金价的典型季节性表明,金价可能在夏季走低,或至少横盘。

在100多年来最严重的经济衰退中,在史无前例的财政和货币支持下,金价仍比历史最高水平(美国)低200美元/盎司。围绕经济状况的诸多不确定似乎已经被消化,而且随着封锁开始结束,价格可能回落。

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