贵金属市场周报

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贵金属锭

第21期 | 2024年06月10日

2024年工业钯需求预计将下降

2024年工业钯需求预计将下降。全球经济疲软预计将对今年的工业钯需求产生拖累。尽管预测者推迟了衰退的预计到来时间,但美国经济衰退的风险仍然存在。上周,彭博经济意外指数达到了2019年以来的最低水平。这表明美国经济数据低于经济学家的预期,并表明表现不佳。5月,美国非农就业人数增长是自1月以来最少的。在经济不确定性和高利率的环境下,电子产品的支出往往会受到影响。由于多层陶瓷电容器(MLCC)的使用量下降以及对其他金属的持续替代,预计钯的电子需求将下降。今年总工业钯需求将从2022年的略低于150万盎司降至136万盎司,其中电子需求占主导地位。钯价下跌的潜在好处是,电子行业在未来两年可能会看到镀金电子元件中黄金被钯替代。目前黄金与钯的比率为2.5,而两年前仅为0.62,这为制造商转向这种白色金属提供了动力,并有可能在2025年实现工业需求同比增长。与其他贵金属一样,钯在周五大幅下跌,但仍保持在每盎司900美元以上。

钌可用于提高从氨中生产绿氢的效率。贺利氏正在领导一个合作伙伴联盟,研究和开发钌如何应用在从氨中生产绿氢的过程中。氨是氢的有效载体分子,但需要在燃烧或催化过程中释放能量之前“裂解”释放氢。目前,燃料电池催化膜中使用了铂和少量的钌。目前,氢经济中只使用了少量的钌,不过预计未来十年需求将会上升。通过在氢经济中以不同的方式应用钌来改善需求,可以抵消硬盘等其他部门由于替代和新技术对需求的威胁而带来钌的长期需求下降。上周,所有三种小型铂族金属价格均小幅下跌。铑收盘价为每盎司5125美元,铱收盘价为每盎司5200美元,钌价格下跌仅5美元,至每盎司430美元。

中国央行在连续购买18个月后,于5月暂停了黄金购买。这一消息可能对黄金市场情绪产生了影响,但贵金属似乎遭受了更广泛的抛售,这也影响了基本金属,基本金属在周五全天也稳步下跌。黄金的长期趋势似乎是上涨的,但价格仍在修正最近的急剧上涨。目前,价格仍保持在每盎司2280美元至2300美元的支撑位之上。如果跌破这一水平,下一个价格支撑位可能在每盎司2200美元左右。

周五银价大幅下跌,扭转了本周早些时候的涨幅。周四银价收盘时超过每盎司31美元,但一周结束时低于每盎司30美元。尽管近几个月来ETF资金净流出,但白银期货的非商业净多头头寸不断累积,这表明对冲基金和其他杠杆投机者支持白银的上涨。过去两个月,投机性多头头寸反弹至四年来的最高水平,这表明基金和其他投机者正在加入上涨行列,而不是现在获利了结。然而,随着净投机头寸达到极端水平,短期内价格反转的风险也随之上升,因为这通常与价格出现峰值的历史情况相吻合。

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