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第36期 | 2024年10月07日

中国重型车辆对铂金的需求可能即将迎来增长

中国制造业增长的势头已经减弱。目前中国工业生产增速疲软,官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)已连续一个季度处于萎缩区间。这些趋势与卡车销量密切相关,并预示着下行风险。

这在中国重型车辆的销量上有所体现。今年1月卡车销量强劲,但此后有所放缓。截至目前的年度累计销量略低于2023年,1月至8月同比下降了2%。从月度数据来看,7月和8月的销量分别为18万辆和17.8万辆,较五年平均水平低23%。7月,西方市场最大的卡车制造商之一沃尔沃将今年中国中重型卡车销量的预测下调5万辆至75万辆。

据预测,中国今年将成为重型汽车催化剂中铂金需求的领先市场,取代西欧之前的领先地位。重型柴油发动机的排放处理系统相较于轻型汽油车而言,所需的铂金含量更多。预计今年中国重型汽车催化剂市场(包括卡车和巴士)将需要17万盎司铂金。

刺激措施可能会推动明年制造业和铂金需求的反弹。中国是全球领先的制造经济体,因此中国的工业生产和经济增长是中国重型卡车销量的关键指标。中国2024年第二季度的GDP增长率低于目标,而采购经理人指数(PMI)则表明第三季度仍未好转。北京方面似乎已到达了一个临界点,迫使政府推出刺激措施,以实现5%的年度GDP增长目标。因此,明年中国乃至全球工业生产可能会复苏。这将推动中国重型汽车销售和铂族金属(PGM)催化剂需求的增长,尤其是铂金需求,2025年可能会在汽车催化剂领域的需求达到20万盎司。

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