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市场聚焦

  • 2021年第6期 - 2021年2月23日

美国普及电动汽车是否会减少对铂族金属的需求?

拜登推动美国加速向电动汽车(EV)过渡,这对美国的尾气催化剂钯需求构成了风险。目前,电动汽车市场的动力来自中国和欧洲,但2021年被冠以美国电动汽车突破年的称号。拜登政府将电动汽车列为优先事项,将会出台税收优惠和政府资助政策。此外,美国今年还推出了不少新的电动汽车车型。

大众的ID.4能让电动汽车在美国成为主流吗?大众ID.4将成为今年市场上由传统车企推出的首款价格经济的电动紧凑型SUV。紧凑型SUV是汽车市场增长最快的细分市场之一。目前特斯拉主导北美的电动汽车销售,但随着来自其他制造商的竞争加剧,这一情况预计将在未来几年发生变化。如果对其他厂商电动汽车的需求上升,2021年可能标志着美国开始真正转向清洁交通。

电动汽车增长的障碍仍然存在。除了需要更多车型可供选择之外,电动汽车是否适合消费者的生活方式?驾驶范围、充电基础设施的可用性和高昂的价格都是令人担忧的问题。对于车厂来说,保障电池供应是另一个问题。今年早些时候,美国国际贸易委员会对韩国电池制造商SK Innovation实施了为期10年的进口禁令,这将会影响福特和大众未来几年在美国的电动汽车计划。欧洲的前景较为乐观,福特在德国科隆的工厂投资10亿美元用于电动汽车生产,目标是到2030年在欧洲全部提供电动汽车。

BEV的增长使钯的需求面临风险。尽管预测各不相同,但预计到2025年,全电动汽车在美国的销量将达到50-100万辆,可能会减少高达14万盎司的钯(占美国需求的7%)和1.9万盎司的铑(占美国需求的8%)的需求。美国是全球第二大汽油车市场,去年售出了1440万辆轻型汽车,占全球每年钯和铑需求量的20%。如果BEV的销售减缓了铑的需求,那可能不是坏事,因为市场本就供不应求。然而,如果汽油车尾气催化剂中的铂替代大幅扩大,加上BEVs进一步削减需求,最终钯市场可能出现过剩。从中期来看,这将给钯金价格带来下行压力。

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