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市场聚焦

  • Edition 28 - 12 August 2020

黄金是时候获利了吗?

黄金涨势太过强劲。自3月市场动荡结束以来,金价不断创出新高,并突破2000美元/盎司。然而,其他 避险资产的走势却没有达到黄金的水平。10年期美国国债收益率跌至新低,日元汇率也没有超过3月份的水 平。此外,在放松封锁之后出现的经济复苏不足以支持美国或德国股市目前的水平。另一轮市场波动可能导 致黄金再次抛售,就像3月份发生的那样。

美元疲软可能逆转,黄金上涨将受阻。一段时间以来,美元兑欧元持续走弱,有助于黄金的上涨。然 而,投机期货合约做多欧元做空美元达到创纪录的水平。之前极端情况都临近转折点。这表明,美元的弱势 可能很快逆转,这将对黄金构成不利因素。

央行的货币政策不是倾向通货膨胀的。在扩大资产负债表方面,欧洲央行一直在与美联储,欧元对美元 对应扩表,目前两者都超过7万亿美元。当金价2011年创下历史新高时,美联储正处于第二轮量化宽松政策 (QE2)的中期,其资产负债表已从2008年的9000亿美元扩大到2011年的2.9万亿美元。与此同时,欧元区正 在应对希腊债务危机。然而,通货膨胀并没有增加。美国核心CPI(不包括能源和食品价格变化)自2008年 以来一直低于2.5%,欧盟统一的消费价格指数(HICP)也是如此。通胀表现在金融资产价格,而非CPI。

债券收益率接近历史低点,表明人们对通货紧缩的担忧多于对通胀的担忧。实际利率为负,这有助于提 振黄金。然而,美联储表示,它不会转向负利率,如果通胀变成通货紧缩,那么实际利率将上升,这也将对 黄金构成不利影响。在这样的水平买入黄金,安全边际要少得多。

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