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  • 2021年第37期 - 2021年10月19日

尽管汽车行业面临挑战,钯金市场仍然紧张

总的来说,今年由于半导体芯片短缺,燃油(ICE)车辆受到的冲击比电池电动汽车(BEV)更大,因为在整个疫情期间,客户对BEV的需求持续增长。因此,汽车制造商没有取消BEV车型的芯片订单,但他们确实取消了ICE的芯片订单,因此当2020年底柴油车和汽油车销售开始恢复时,芯片制造能力缺失了。BEV和ICE在芯片需求方面存在一些重叠,但有一些独特的、更高价值的芯片专为BEV设计,使得当前条件下芯片商优先为BEV制造芯片。

汽车制造商的二氧化碳排放目标也将有利于今年和明年BEV的生产,而非ICE。虽然汽车制造商正在尽一切努力生产利润最大化的汽车(目前往往是利润最高的ICE车型),但他们还必须确保二氧化碳排放目标得以实现,以避免支付巨额罚款,预计这将利好BEV。欧洲最大的轻型汽车品牌Stellantis最近宣布,在芯片可用性仍然受限的情况下,它打算将BEV的制造优先于ICE车型。

BEV普及率的增加可能会在明年减少近50万盎司的铂族金属需求。BEV生产的前景一直在向上修正(即使是疫情期间),而ICE的前景则被下调。2022年的BEV产量预测比2019年的预测高出20%。这主要是以牺牲ICE产量为代价的,预计2022年ICE产量将比早期预测低14%左右。明年,预计BEV渗透将使得铂族金属需求增长减少约35万盎司的钯、5万盎司的铑和8万盎司的铂。

然而,如果钯金回收没有如预期增长,或者Nornickel的扩张计划出现任何缺口,特别是如果这几年受抑制的汽车需求复苏,那么钯金市场可能比预期的更为紧张。从长期来看,由于电池材料供应受限,可能存在与BEV产量预测相关的风险。预计到2026年,项目供应量将与预测的BEV产量保持一致,但此后,预测的需求量与供应量之间可能出现分歧。从铂族金属的角度来看,如果因材料短缺而未生产的BEV被ICE汽车(主要是汽油混合动力车)取代,那么这种潜在的供应短缺(可能是锂)可能会使汽油车尾气催化剂中的一些钯需求长期存在。

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