贺利氏贵金属预测 2020

2020年展望

未来价格将出现更多波动

美国经济放缓的幅度似乎超过欧元区,美联储放松货币政策的空间也更大。尽管美联储声称今年不会改变利率,但由于经济形势疲弱,市场预计至少会降息一次。这可能导致美元相对于欧元走软。

今年年初,由于美国刺杀一名伊朗将军引发的避险买盘,黄金和白银价格得到提振。对地缘政治事件的下意识反应往往是短暂的,因此这种反弹可能会迅速消退。不过,中东紧张局势、美国总统大选和贸易谈判都可能刺激今年的避险资产需求,因此这一背景仍有利于金银价格上升。

铂是铂族金属中最弱的。大幅低于黄金和钯的价格有助于推高铂金价格,但由于基本面不佳,且预计又一年将出现巨大的供过于求(不包括投资),铂金价格不太可能进一步上扬。

钯和铑以强劲上涨送别2019迎接2020。今年价格的波动似乎仍将是一个特点。租赁利率1月份才开始回升,而价格强劲上涨直至有足够的流动性。目前,市场正在收紧,最终用户正为这些金属支付越来越高的价格。这两种金属的价格都与汽车行业的命运息息相关, 如果经济形势不好转,汽车销量继续下滑,这一高位可能迅速逆转。南非可能会出现供应中断,这对铂族小金属的生产造成的相对影响要大于铂或钯。

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